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Value Line Performance

January 9th, 2009

Value Line’s Timeliness rank is the proprietary ranking system that Value Line has developed. The Timeliness rank is from 1-5 with 1 being the best, 2 being above average, 3 being average, 4 being worse than average and 5 being the worse.

Here is what Value Line states on their website:

A stock portfolio of #1 Ranked stocks for Timeliness from The Value Line Investment Survey, beginning in 1965 and updated at the beginning of each year, would have shown a gain of 22,062% through June 2008*.

That compares with a gain of 1,145% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the same period. VALUE LINE #1 RANKED STOCKS OUTPERFORMED THE DOW BY MORE THAN 19 TO 1*.

This gain would have beaten the S&P 500 by nearly 16 to 1 for the same time span.ne-year holding periods in Value Line’s 100 Top-Ranked TimelinessMstocks

Below is a chart showing the returns from Value Line’s Timeliness rated stocks. Group 1 is the best performance and Group 5 is the worst performer.

The returns are based on rebalancing the portfolio every year. Dividends and commissions were not included in the calculations.

Based on the great performance of this, some ETF’s have been created to try and mimic the performance of this.

PowerShares Value Line Timeliness Select Portfolio (ticker: PIV)
First Trust Value Line 100 Fund (FVL)

Neither of these ETFs have been around long enough to show much meanful data. Both of these ETFs lost almost half of their value from the peaks of 2008 much like the stock market.

The exact ranking of the stocks is not exactly the same as Value Line. First Trust is said to be more correlated to Value Line’s results than the PowerShares ETF.

The PowerShares Value Line Timeliness Select Portfolio is based not only on the Timeliness rating but also the safety and technical rankings. http://www.invescopowershares.com/products/overview.aspx?ticker=PIV

The First Trust Value Line 100 Fund is said to select 100 stocks given a #1 for Timeliness by Value Line. FLV

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Stock Market Valuator

S&P 500 1,344.33
Overvalued by
6.20% 83.33 points
Should be 1261 points

*based on 7.25% annual growth rate since Jan 1976

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